Task: FOMC-dated OIS short end with flat-forward interpolation

Table of Contents

This page documents a task in the IR curve bootstrapping + official curve republish story. It captures the goal, current status, acceptance, and any notes or results.

1. Goal

Model the USD SOFR OIS short end correctly: bootstrap it off FOMC-meeting-dated pillars rather than the ordinary tenor grid, and interpolate within that segment with a flat-forward (step) method, since the Fed Funds target is administratively constant between meetings and only steps at the meeting date. Beyond the FOMC-dated segment, transition to a continuous non-local method (log-linear on discount factors, or a spline — see Interpolation) for the liquid Fixed-vs-Compounded-SOFR swap pillars, matched at a curve split tenor. Getting the direction of this split wrong is a real modelling error: a continuous spline between FOMC dates implies daily Fed policy moves (false), while a flat-forward step between long-dated swap pillars produces jagged, arbitrageable forwards.

Prompted by two LinkedIn posts by André Luiz Rodrigues ("USD SOFR Curve" and "The Yield Curve") reviewed against this codebase's existing domain docs; see FOMC Dates for the write-up and full attribution.

2. Status

Field Value
State ABANDONED
Parent story IR curve bootstrapping + official curve republish
Now Nothing.
Waiting on Nothing.
Next Nothing.
Last touched 2026-08-09

3. Acceptance

  • The USD SOFR curve's OIS pillar instruments in the short end are generated/bootstrapped off consecutive FOMC dates, not the ordinary tenor grid.
  • The short-end interpolation method between FOMC-dated pillars is a flat-forward step (constant forward rate within each FOMC-to-FOMC interval), distinct from the generic log-linear default.
  • Beyond the FOMC-dated segment, the curve transitions to a continuous non-local interpolation method (log-linear or spline) for the longer-dated swap pillars, matched at a defined curve split tenor.
  • Domain docs (FOMC Dates, Interpolation) reflect the implemented behaviour, updating them if the implementation diverges from what was documented up front.

4. Plan

(Implementation strategy. Written when work starts; key decisions are distilled into the parent story's * Decisions at close, but the plan itself stays — it is the historical record of what we did.)

5. Notes

  • 2026-08-09 — Abandoned: implementation was premature. The FOMC/IMM/tenor and calendar model needs a design decision first — FOMC dates are events of a given type on a currency calendar, not a new resolution algorithm or a new table. Analysis moves to the FOMC story; this task is re-scoped there once the approach is decided.

6. Test Scenarios

Manual QA scenarios (scaffolded via compass add test_scenario, run through the QA Validation Runner panel) that verify this task. Link new ones here as they're created; the scenario doc itself links back via its "Verifies task" field.

Scenario State Notes
     

7. PRs

PR Title
   

8. Review

Comment summary File Decision Notes
       

9. Result

Emacs 29.3 (Org mode 9.6.15)